Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 4, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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We have no basketball Monday and it's a good thing. It's been a terrible run for me with a long series of bad beats however it's part of the game. We have 2 games with some important moves and I'll add a 3rd one in the morning if anything happens overnight.

BOSTON BRUINS

The Bruins are one of the best road teams this year and their offense is firing all cylinders scoring on average over 5 GF/G in their last 5. The Blue Jackets are dead last in defense this year have been allowing over 4 GA/G in their last 5 and have been miserable on the PK with a 60% efficient rate. The Bruins totally dominated Columbus 2 days ago at home, winning 5-2, scoring 1 powerplay goal and bombarded Merzlikins with 42 SOG. Columbus lost their last 6 and hasn't won a game since March 19th. The Bruins have 91 points and chasing the Pens which have 1 more point in the standings however played 2 more games. This is a very important game for the Bruins and I don't expect a letdown from them. Ullmark is confirmed tomorrow since the Bruins are playing in Detroit the following night and this drops their win probability by about 6%. My NHL model has this game at -185 and market makers opened the game at -178 Sunday morning. Sharp money came in instantly and pushed the line to -215 and -230 for the Bruins. The line is inflated but I wouldn't touch Columbus except in DFS in GPPs.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Another 2 teams being chased by the Bruins are the Leafs and Lighting. Both with 93 points and have played 68 games. The Leafs haven't played as expected on the road this year however they are in playoff mode winning 7 of their last 10 and on a 4 game winning streak. The Lighting just lost to the Habs in overtime which they haven't lost to at home since 2016-2017. The Leafs have a top 3 offense and have been on fire last 5 games scoring on average 5.20 GF/G with an insane PP rate of 47%. On the other side, Tampa Bay has limited the opposition to 2.20 GA/G with an elite PK of 94% success rate. As mentioned, the Leafs haven't looked dominating on the road this year and haven't been good on the blue line and between the pipes. Looking at this game in detail, the Lightning has the edge at home, on D, in nets and can definitely match on the offensive side. The Lightning opened at -140 from the market makers Sunday morning and sharps found value on the Leafs. The line was steamed all the way down to -119. My model has this line at -116 and agrees with the value on the Leafs. It's a tough game to call, especially since Toronto has been rolling the last 2 games on the road and I didn't like what I saw from the Lightning on Saturday night

UPDATE:

***There was not much interest at the book from the sharps overnight. There is no NBA tonight so I was expecting more volume/traffic in the NHL but it didn't happen. The total in Tampa went up to 6.5 from 6. Another total on the move was in LA, it went up from 5.5 to 6.

In the MLB we have 2 games with sharp interest. The RedSox and Braves. The max bet limits are very low in these games however respected bettors still have an impact on these games.

Good luck today

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