Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 26, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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In our last edition on the 23rd the sharps were on the over in Vancouver and 6 goals were scored in the 3rd and the total went over. In the NBA they were on the over in the Mavs and that didn't work too well for them. The last game we reviewed was the Reds at home and the sharps liked the value with Mahle on the mount.... they lost 5-0 and the sharps went 1-2 that day.

Some weird slates in the NHL late in the season. There has barely been any movement and it feels like the sharps have given up on hockey until the playoffs start. One of the biggest games on the slate will in Dallas where both teams are still battling for a wild card spot. The Starts are just 3 points ahead of Vegas and a win here will be huge for them. However, there is no sharp interest in this game. The sharp report will feature 4 games early in the morning but most of the targets are big underdogs and I don't like any of them. There is a total where the sharps are all over and by the afternoon we can see a rare 7.5 if the money keeps on coming in on the over. Yes, I'm talking about the game in Toronto. The total opened at 7 -102 and is currently at -114. 80% of the handle is on the over and my model has this game at 6.86. I'm not expecting too much defense in this game, especially with both defenses allowing close to 4 GA/G in their last 5 games. Against teams with a winning record of .600 tor better, the Redwings are allowing close to 4.5 GA/G. The Leafs should feast both 5v5 and on the powerplay. I'd prefer to bet the over at 6.5 so I'll sit this one out.

In the NBA all 3 games have a spread between 6 and 7 and they haven't moved much or at all. If we look at the game in Miami, we have sharps on both sides but none of them really made a big difference in the line movement. In Memphis, the same story, we have sharps on both sides however sharps on Minnesota have been laying down the money enough to make the line move from +7.5 to +6. In Phoenix, many are surprised to see this series tied up at 2 apiece. Some US books opened the Suns at -7 and they saw heavy action on the Pelicans. In the offshore market, Betonline opened the line at -6 and it has moved to -6.5 while 5Dimes opened its line at -6.5 and it hasn't moved. I will update the NBA section in the morning the sharps got busy overnight.

Let's talk a little baseball. The Marlins led by Alcantara are getting a ton of interest from the sharps. Market Makers opened the Marlins as a -115 favourite late this afternoon and the sharps were all over them pushing the line to -137. The Marlins were impressive in Atlanta taking 2 out of 3 and scoring 14 runs in the last 2 games. The Nats are the worst team in terms of allowed runs/9 and allow on average 5.40 runs per game. My model has the Marlins at -114 and I don't agree with it. I like the Marlins here and ill side with the sharps.

UPDATE:

No deep dive was done in these games however still worth mentioning. In the NHL We saw sharp interest in Edmonton with the news that Desmith might start for the Pens. The Sens are also on the go and the line can move higher than -140. The Kraken also saw sharp money and went from +201 to +156 with the confirmation of Spencer Martin instead of Demko.

Nothing else to report in the NBA.

In MLB we have the Rays on the move from -110 to -130. Betonline undervalued Gausman and opened the Jays ate -151 which forced them to adjust their line with 5dimes opened the game at -186. The Angels game is interesting. 5Dimes opened the game at -170 and got hit with sharp money on the Guardians pushing the line down as low as -137. Betonline opened at -141 and got money on the Angels pusing the line back up to -161.

Good luck today

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