Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 23, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Sharps seem to be on a roll in the NHL lately. Wasn't an easy one however Ottawa won in overtime and that was a win for the sharps. In the NBA, the sharp targeted the Hawks and they stole the game from Miami (or Miami gave it away) but that was another win from the sharps. In the MLB, the game in Detroit got PPD while In Tampa the Rays lost to Boston and that was the only loss for the sharps.

It's a quiet day in the NHL in terms of value and sharp interest. My NHL model doesn't show much on today's slate and the sharps have been pretty quiet except on a couple of games today. At the current moment, the sharp report identified 3 totals the sharps got on overnight. One of them is the over in Calgary. Recently, the Canucks have become an over-the-total team versus being an under team for most of the season. The over is 8-1-1 in Vancouver's last 10 games, scoring close to 4 GF/G and allowing close to 3.5 GA/G. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Vancouver. My model doesn't agree and has this total at 5.92. Who will be right?

In the NBA there is still room for movement. I'll explain, max bet limits are fully open for the Toronto game and you can bet close to 35k on the side. In Utah, the books are not as comfortable and the max bet limits are set just shy of 6k. In Brooklyn and Minnesota, they feel a little more comfortable however max bet limits are 1/3 opened and capped at 11k. My model is showing value on the Celtics and Raptors however sharps are only on some totals. One of them is over in the Dallas game (once again) The total hasn't moved much and my model barely shows 1% EV. The over was one of my plays last game and there are no signs that this series will revert to low-scoring games like game 1. I like the over.

The books are very sensitive when it comes to moving MLB lines. Especially when the NBA is still going on. Last night we saw some late action come in on the Reds and this morning the sharps got on the Reds but much earlier. 5dimes opened Reds a +125 underdogs and sharps jumped on the value and forced the books to readjust the line to -110 with 65% of the handle on them. The Reds have a terrible 2-12 record but the sharp found value in the number with Mahle on the mount. I didn't like his last outing and it won't get any easier with the Cardinals bats. My model did show value at +135 since I have this game at -101 based on the pitching match-up. I'm not willing to bet the Reds unless the value is out of this world and it's not the case today.

Good luck today

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