Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 22, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Sharps were all over the Sabres last night and they were so right. Easy 5-2 victory over the Devils. In the NBA they were on the under in Minnesota and once again the Grizzlies limited the Twovles to under 100 pts however that was because of a disastrous 4th quarter and complete meltdown. And in the MLB the sharps were on Texas which I disagreed with the support of my model and let me tell you I felt pretty good about it when the Mariners took a 5-0 lead in the 21st inning. I woke up this morning just to find them losing 8-6. I love sports! The sharps went 3-0 with the games we reviewed yesterday.

Today I'll quickly storm thru some games and I will update the article needed. I will be travelling for most of the day however I wanted to make sure we covered the most important games and moves.

It's a very small slate in the NHL and we have another meaningless game where the sharps took a decent position. The Blue Jackets have lost 3 straight (including to SJ and ANA) and a little like Jersey last night they look like they have given up and can't wait for the season the be over. The Sens are still playing hard and recently beat the Canucks at home. Betonline opened Columbus a -125 favourites and the sharps jumped all over Ottawa forcing the books to adjust Columbus down to -105. My model shows a 5% EV on the Blue Jackets with Elvis in nets tonight.

The drama continues in the NBA tonight. Would have loved the see the 76ers but they are on 2 days' rest and resume tomorrow afternoon. Embiid looks to be on a mission. Sharps are targeting the Hawks for tonight's game. The Heat opened at -3 and it dropped to -1 overnight and is now at -1.5. 70% of the handle is on the Hawks but we can see some money coming back on the Heat but no signs of sharps therefore it looks like squares money. 77% of the ticket count is on the Heat so there is your square interest. My model has the Hawks -1.5 therefore I am happy to see the line moving towards my projections however the Hawks are the worst team in the league to wager on when being an underdog.

In the MLB we have 2 games that got my attention when going over the data. The Rays with Kluber pitching moved from -130 to -151 on sharp interest and the Tigers with Skubal pitching was the other game going from -130 to -151 with sharp interest. The Rays are properly priced with the move and there is no value on them anymore however we find the Rockies being a top value play based on my MLB EV model. I like the value of the Rockies today, they have the best OPS in baseball and they are not showing any sign of regression. The Tigers have one of the worst OPS in the league and are 28th in runs so far this season. I disagree with the sharp interest in the Tigers today.

Good luck today

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