Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 21, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Sharps were right about the over in Arizona. It was a close one with a final score of 4-3. Heartbreaking loss for the Raptors. They were a top value pick from my models, so close. Anyway, sharps were on the over, it didn't go over so it's a loss for the sharps. The last 2 games reviewed were the Phillies and the Marlins. The Phillies finally won a game while the Marlins lost to the impressive Cardinals team in a solid pitching duel.

We have an early start to the MLB slate however let's first take a look at the NHL. We will gladly pass on the Panthers game in which they are a -550 favourite. This year we've seen some crazy lines in the NHL. Mid-season we saw the Avs at -700 versus the Habs. It's just insane. For the regulars reading this article, you can remember how many times we covered the Devils since the sharps found they were undervalued many times during this season. Tonight is not the case. The Devils opened at -145 favourites just to see the sharps slam the Sabres at +131 and +119 bringing the line down to -125 for the Devils. My NHL model has the Devils at -140 and currently shows 3.55% EV on them. The Sabres have been playing better hockey as of late and I prefer their offense over the Devils. The Devils have been a mess defensively and we can say the same for the Sabres on the road. The Sabres are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games therefore win or lose they have kept games very close. I have no interest in this game tbh.

In other games, the Bruins got some interest from the sharps and the same goes for the Blues. There is no value on the Bruins however my model shows little value on the Sharks but I will be staying away from them. The Sharks lost close to 10 straight while the Blues are trying to win their 10th game in their last 11. One of our coaches (Rich) is on the Blues tonight and so will I.

We have 3 games in the NBA and the Sharp Report is showing 2 plays where the sharps took a position. One of them is the under in Minnesota. The total opened at 238 two days and the money on the under was steady last 48 hours pushing the number down to 236. 55% of the handle is on the under. My NBA model has this total at 236 therefore it moved accordingly towards my projections. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Memphis and based on the last game where Memphis neutralized Minnesota's offence to under 100 points the sharps are expecting another solid defensive game from Memphis.

This brings us to the MLB where the most interest this early comes on the last game of the slate. The Rangers opened a +134 underdog and sharps found value in that line and adjusted the line to +118. My model doesn't agree and has the Mariners at -153 which gives us a +7.3% EV with Gonzales on the mount. The Rangers have lost 5 straight and 7 of the last 8 while the Mariners pitching staff has dominated the last 6 games winning 5 of 6 and allowing on average almost less than 2 runs per game. With Gonzales starting for the Mariners, the Rangers should continue to be limited in scoring runs especially if he pitches the same way he did versus the Astros. I'll side with the model here and I also disagree with the sharp interest in the Rangers.

Good luck today

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