Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 20, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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In our last edition on the 18th, the sharps were all over the total in Colorado. That game finished under and they were wrong. Sharps also had the under between the Raptors and 76ers, that was a winner. The last game was the Phillies in Colorado and the PHILLIES suck!! That was also a loss.

The NHL is about to get into playoff mode and I cant !#$(@(!% wait!! The most important game tonight in terms of playoff implications is between Vegas and Dallas. Unfortunately, that game has not seen any sharp interest. Actually, it's been freaking quiet in the NHL. The only game that sharps targeted overnight was the over in Arizona. The total moved from 6 to 6.5. I will for sure not waste my time watching this game. My total has this game at 6.03 therefore there is not much interest for me to go further in handicapping this game. Both teams have been awful defensively lately. The coyotes have been allowing 6.60 GA/A in their last 5 while the Blackhawks are allowing close to 5 GA/G. Combined, both teams have been averaging 4.60 GF/G which is low. I have no interest in this game.

In the NBA, same as the NHL, there has not been much movement overnight. My model likes the Raptors and projects them at -2.5 therefore we have value however the sharps are the over. The total moved from 214 to 216, it's not a big move but I confirm that sharps were involved and pushed the handle to 77% on the over. In the previous game, the sharps were on the under this matchup but they are now travelling back to Toronto where the under is 8-3 in the last 11 games but 0-2 last 2 games. Historically the Raptors play the under in conference quarterfinals games and the under trend is dominated by a 10-4 record last 14. My NBA model has this game at 214.

In the MLB we have some action, I will go over it quickly since I don't like any of these games. The Phillies are getting sharp money in a spot where "the Phillies can't lose again right" Until the Phillies show some consistency I would recommend you stay away from them. The Marlins, which won 3 of 4 versus the Phillies (that's how bad the Phillies are currently) have received some sharp interest with Alcantara on the mount. The line opened at -122 and moved to -140. At the current number, my model shows a +EV of 9% on the Cardinals and doesn't agree with the sharps. The Cardinals have done very well offensively this season and are getting solid support from their pitching staff. Scoring on average 5.4 runs per game, this team and blow up anytime with the hottest batter in the league in their lineup. Alcantara can definitely slow them down, he's extremely consistent and rarely gets hit hard which is something important facing the best ISO team in the league.

Good luck today

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