Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 18, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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It's a late edition of the Overnight Grid and I apologize. It was a busy day yesterday with Easter and this morning life got in the way. Yesterday the sharps were on the Leafs (even without Matthews) and that was a win for them. In the NBA the sharps were late on picking games but ended up being on the over in Miami and that was a loss. I did mention that I didn't like that pick since I strongly believed that Miami's offense would neutralize the Hawks and that is what happened. The last game of interest was on the Cubs in Colorado. Cubs won 6-4 and the sharps were right on that game also.

In the NHL tonight we have a 6 game slate and scoring has been thru the roof. We have 4 big favourites while the 2 games are basically pickems. Most of the sharp moves have been on the totals as per the sharp report. One of the most important moves from the sharps comes in the game in Colorado. The Over opened at 6 -125 at Betonline and it went up a full goal this morning. Both teams have been on firing scoring on average 11 goals per game in their last 5. The Caps defense has also been struggling and allowing 3.60 GA/G in their last 5. The Avs powerplay is at 43% in their last 5 and once again straight up fire. We should see lots of scoring in this one folks!

In the NBA the sharps are on the under in Philadelphia. My model has the total at 217 in this game while the books opened it at 220.5. 90% of the handle is on the under its been a steady drop from 220.5 to 215. After watching game 1 it's hard to support the sharps and the under. The 76ers shot 51% from the field while the Raptors at 49%. Both teams are in the top 10 in aDRTG (adjusted defensive rating) and we can assume the sharps are expecting a much more defensive approach in this game. The sharp report has one more sharp play and it's in the Dallas game.

Not much happening in the MLB once again. We had the Twins on the sharp report this morning and they are up 5-2 as I'm writing this. Another game on the sharp report is the Phillies in Colorado tonight. They opened at -145 yesterday afternoon and sharps pushed the line as high as -164 this morning. My MLB model shows almost a +10% EV on the Rockies and it doesn't agree with the sharp interest in the Phillies. I prefer Nola to Kuhl so the pitching edge goes to the Phillies. Kuhl was decent in his start this year however walked 4 and showed some issues with his control. I expect the Phillies to punish him tonight. The Rockies have surprised many with their start however they should slowly start regressing towards their mean

Good luck today

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