Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 17, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The sharps came short with the Mariners but had no issues with the Bruins, Jazz and Warriors.

The Leafs are playing on back-to-back nights and have a short trip back from Ottawa. Campbell is projected since he rested on Saturday and the Isles should go back to Sorokin after a great outing versus the Habs on Friday night. As I'm writing this the Leafs are losing 3-1, however, are dominating puck control and SOGs. The Leafs are not the Habs and the Islanders should have their hand full with the Leafs especially on at the Air Canada center where they've been great this year. If they lose to Ottawa this game will have more of an incentive since momentum is important going into the playoffs. 5Dimes opened the Leafs a -157 favourite just to see the sharps jump all over them and pushed the line at -190 in no time. My model has the Leafs at -162 therefore you will find some value in the Islanders but I have no interest in it.

Apart from this game, we saw a couple of other games see some action on the over. The Panthers went from 6.5 to 7, the Flyers from 6 to 6.5, in Nashville from 5.5 to 6 with the potential starting goalies being Binninton and Rittich.

In the NBA it's been very quiet and there is not much to report unfortunately however ill update this section if something happens overnight or in the morning.

UPDATE: Overnight the over in Miami was a target and some books even moved it to 220. My model has this game at 223 but I don't like the over. My model does and same as the sharps. I trust the Heat's defense to contain and slow down Young and the crew. There are 2 other games that the sharps have targeted overnight, you can find them on the Sharp Report! (claim your free month)

MLB is slow to move but we have a game where we saw an important swing. It's in Coors and I hate Coors... especially because of DFS. Anyway, Smyly and the Cubs got steamed early afternoon when the line came out. They went from a +135 underdog to +110. Bet limits are low and there is only 30% of the handle on the Cubs therefore someone very respected at the sportsbook made a big move on the Cubs. My model has the Cubs at +130 so it doesn't really agree with the sharp interest. Smyly did well in his first start only allowing 3 hits in 5 innings. It's weird to say that the Rockies are second in batting average this year but it's true and pitching has been above average. Both teams have had success versus lefties and we can see lots of runs in this game. I'll pass on this game.

In other games, Elder and the Braves saw some money coming in their favour. Darvish was awful in his last start. Apart from that, it's been quiet and the other game where we should see movement is in Boston Wacha is getting more love than Ober.

Update:

Some money coming in on the Nationals but never trust Corbin. Money on Cincinnati and expect that line to come down a little and settle in the -180 ranges. Seattle is once again getting some interest. This will be Brash's second start, he did well in his first start last week.

Good luck today

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