Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 16, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The sharps swept the board yesterday. Easy win for the Panthers. Then 2 come back from behind wins with Atlanta and New Orleans. Also the under in Cleveland cashed!!! Today we have a busy day, the NHL's season is about to finish, the NBA is "officially" in playoff mode and the MLB season is in full swing with most pitchers with 2 starts under their belt.

The NHL season is almost over and the last 2 to 3 weeks are always terrible to wager on. So many teams check out, others make a push for a playoff spot, others want to play spoilers and play above their capacities. Basically, it's a mess full of upsets and creates a little instability in the market.

An interesting move overnight was on the Boston Bruins. The Pens have of Desmith projected today as they travel Boston. Jarry has a minor injury and should be resting. The Bruins haven't done well in their last 5 games going 1-4 and allowing 3.40 GA/G which is almost 1 goal more than their season average of 2.70 GA/G. The Pens haven't done that well either going 2-3 last 5 and allowing 3.60 GA/G. Pittsburgh is 3-15 in their last 18 games in Boston and it would for sure feel good to get a win here and gain some momentum back. The Bruins offense has been asleep for a while and hasn't scored more than 2 goals in their last 4 games. The Bruins opened a -108 favourite yesterday and most of the handle is on them. Most of the money came in overnight and pushed the line to -135. My model has the Bruins at -128 and with Swayman confirmed I do give the Bruins an edge. It's a tough game to call.

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In the NBA, the Luka injury had the books rushing to find a new balance. Sharp interest is on the Jazz and the -2, -3 and -4.5 were slammed. The line settled at -5 2 days ago. The total was also affected going from 217-5 to 209.5. My model has this game at -3 and 212. I'll be staying away since the Jazz screwed me enough this year.

As for Golden State, I have the game projected at -7 with Curry in the lineup. He's playing tonight unless a disaster happens. This line opened at -5 and moved to -6.5. Sharps are on the Warriors and are banking on Curry's return to fuel the Warrior's offense!

It's been quiet once again in the MLB. We have minor moves but nothing crazy. The Sharp report features 5 games where the sharp brought their focus. The biggest move is on an underdog. We gotta love underdogs in baseball. Anyone has a chance to win on any given day.

Overnight the sharps took a position on the Mariners. Personally, I don't know why. I didn't like the way Flexen pitched versus the Twins and I don't like the way Seattle's offense started the season. Verlander looked solid in his first game back but just like the Mariners, Houston's offense is giving me nothing to write about with their 9 runs in their last 6 games. So this game is coming down to pitching and the Astros have the edge today. On the hand, my MLB model agrees with the sharps and is projecting a 57% win probability (-144) for the Astros. The line opened at -175 at 5dimes and it dropped 32pts to -143 early this morning. The Mariners scored 11 runs yesterday and we might see a little overreaction. In conclusion, my model and the sharps like the Mariners, I like the Astros therefore ill be sitting this one out.

Good luck today

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