Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 15, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Oilers did to Nashville what Nashville was supposed to do to the Oilers, sharps were wrong on Nashville. The Angels and Ohtani came out strong but collapsed right after and Ohtani road struggles continue. The only game the sharps were right was in Dallas. Sharps were on the Wild but it wasn't an easy win. Dallas fought hard but it wasn't enough.

There are only 2 NHL games on April 15th. I don't expect anything to happen in the Habs game and the game is properly priced. In the other game, Betonline opened the Panthers at -195 and 5dimes followed at -200. Both books got sharp money on the Panthers and the line moved to -255. The Jets don't have much of a chance to make the playoffs and I don't expect a letdown from the Panthers. However, Boston, Carolina and Tampa Bay had issues beating crappy teams yesterday so anything can happen at this point of the season. My model has the Panthers are -224 therefore they are a little overpriced but I don't like the Jets chances of winning this game.

It's also very slow in the NBA. We have 2 games and none of them had major moves. As per the sharp report, the sharps are taken an early position on the Hawks, the under and the Pelicans. The under in Cleveland is the play with the model mone wagered at this point. Some US retail books have the Cavs at +3 but their low bet limits don't really affect the market. My betting model isn't showing much value in bother game. The Cavs game is projected at a pickem in our models so keep an eye on that line because if it keeps on going up the Cavs will be open to a higher EV.

In the MLB, max bet limits are at about 1k early evening and overnight. A sharp bettor can bet the low max limits multiple times before the book puts the line OTB (off the board) so that they can adjust the numbers. It's rare it will happen but it does. Betonline posted their lines for today's game yesterday around 3 PM. There has barely been any movement except on some totals therefore we will have to wait for the morning to see if anything happens. Till then, these are some of the games that my MLB model is showing value:

Morning update:

It was quiet also overnight however the RedSox got some attention. The wind/weather will for sure make this game interesting. Betonline opened the Redsox a -108 favourite while 5dimes priced the Twins a -120 favourite. The sharp report has identified sharp money on the Redsox overnight. My MLB model has the Redsox at -119 therefore based on the book you have there was value on Boston. This is opening day in Boston and I agree with the sharp interest in Boston! This is a second start for Ryan and it's a tough one in Boston while Pivetta should have an edge on the ridiculous amount of K's from the Twins hitters.

Good luck today

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