Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 14, 2022
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
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I made it very clear that I didn't like the Yankees yesterday and that the value was on the Jays. I hope you took that advice. The Sharps were wrong on the Yankees.
It's a day off for the NBA therefore we will focus on the NHL and MLB
In the NHL we have 2 interesting sports. The first game is in Nashville where the sharps took a position on them early this afternoon when Smith was confirmed. The Preds just lost to Florida and Pittsburgh and looked uninspired versus the Sharks which they barely beat 1-0. The Oilers lost 2 straight and only scored 2 goals but they bombarded Kuemper with 50 SOGs. They were less impressive versus the Wild. My model likes the Preds tonight and I agree with both the model and the sharps. The Preds defense should be capable of shutting down the Oilers offense!
The second game the sharps are on is the Minnesota Wild. Overnight the money was coming in on the Stars however the line was moving the other way. That is called a reserve line movement and confirmed the sharp interest on the Wild. The Stars are fighting for a playoff and they will have their hand full versus the Wild. The Wild haven't had much success in Dallas winning only 9 games out of their last 39 games. Dallas has had a very easy schedule during their last 10 games. Apart from playing Tampa and Toronto, the other 8 games were against opponents with a losing record including Seattle, NJ, SF, ANA x2. They didn't look great in many of those games. The line opened at -105 and my model is at -101. Dallas plays very well at home and this should be a very close game. I'm not saying I disagree with the sharps, I like the Wild also but I won't have any exposure to this game.
It's been very quiet in the MLB. One game that got my attention is in Texas. The sharps jumped on Ohtani and the Angels yesterday afternoon and the line moved from -122 to -145. Since 10 am this morning the handle on the Angels moved down from 82% to 56% however the line stayed at -145. This confirms that the book wants more money on Texas, preferably big money. My model is showing value on the Rangers (+3%EV) This is another game I would stay away. The Rangers have yet to find an identity with all their new players. Watching them play in Toronto It was obvious that their offence would have an edge over the Rockies but it wasn't the case. The Angels offense also had a slow start and I don't usually like Ohtani on the road. No lean on this game folks!
Good luck today
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