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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 13, 2022

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Sharps were right about the Rangers not caring in yesterday's game. They should have given a better effort. The Canes won and that was the only game they were right. Brash did well in his first start with the Mariners. He had 6 K's, pitched 5.1 innings and only gave up 2 runs on 4 hits. That wasn't enough for the win and the WhiteSox gave the sharps the loss. The sharps, squares and my betting model were all over the Texas Rangers! They disappointed all of us!

There are 3 games in the NHL tonight and not much interest from the sharps. The total in Columbus moved from 6 to 6.5 however that is standard practice for the Blue Jackets when the total opens at 6. They give up a ton of shots and goals.

In the NBA we have 2 playoff games where we have seen movement and interest from the sharps. As per the sharp report (available for pro subscribers), The Hawks and the under are spots that were targeted by the sharps. My model agrees with both. In New Orleans, the sharps took a position on the -5 and the line moved to -5.5. The total dropped from 229 to 224 however my model doesn't agree with it and sharps at the book are not on the under.

NEW YORK YANKEES

The biggest move of the day in MLB comes with the Yankees. They opened as a -129 favourite yesterday afternoon and sharps slammed the line up to -165 with 70% of the handle on them. IMO, Cole at home at -129 is too low but at -165 versus the Jays it's too high. My model has this game at -120 for the Yankees and there is +14% EV on the Jays tonight. Berrios was terrible in his first outing however he owns the Yankees on a small size of under 100 at-bats. The expected hitting average would be about .181. The Jays active players have had much more success versus Cole. This line is a little too high on the Yankees and squares are on the Blue Jays therefore it's not like there is public money flooding on the Yankees. I don't agree with the sharps here and my lean is on the Jays plus the money.



Good luck today

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