NFL week 2 model projections

Week 2 is here!!

What a crazy week 1! Combined there were 15 missed field goals and extra points. 2 ties and 6 games decided by 3 or fewer points. We also saw a set of big upsets which must have given massive heartburn to many.

Here are week 2 projections. This is the final run of my model pending big injury news during the week. The first run of the model was shared in our VIP discord server.

The under in Miami however total already moved from 46 to 43.5. The initial run of the model Sunday was at 43.5

Value on Washington. The model has them at -2.5 and the books are giving us a +1

Jacksonville under 47. This total is off by a TD as per the model. Total is moving against the model's projection. From 45.5 to 47

Tampa Bay under 44 still has little value. We have it at 42 while the total opened at 46.5 and dropped to 44.

NY Giants -1 and the under 39. We have the Giants at -3 and this line is obviously on the move at many books. Betonline and Mybookie are still showing -1. The total is 43 and we have it at 39.

I am staying away from the game in Pittsburgh. My projections are still showing -2.5 for the Steelers and this is without Watt. I adjusted the total down by 1.35 pts however my projections stayed the same for the game.

There was value on the Falcons at +13 however that line is gone. My model was showing value Sunday night. This line can keep on moving down to 10. There is no value to the total.

SEATTLE!!! WE HAVE A VALUE ON SEATTLE. That feels dirty to say but it's true. The line is moving against the model's projection though. My model has the Niners at -6.5 while the line opened at -9 and moved to -9.5.

We have value on the Cowboys but I will stay away from this game.... for now. I initially had the Cowboys at -3 and the total at 49. The new projection is Cincinnati -4 and the total at 44. Betonline posted Dallas -2.5 and that changed quickly with Dak's injury. The new number was -6 and moved to -6.5 and -7 within less than 1 hour. 90% of the handle is on Cincinnati.

Arizona looked like shit on Sunday and now they are traveling to Vegas. The low limit line at Betonline was Vegas -3. It moved to -3.5 on Monday and closed at -6. Massive money on Vegas however at +6 we are seeing the handle go from 88% on Vegas to 63%. My model shows value in Arizona but I am scared of supporting that team with Kingsbury still onboard.

The Packers are at home and a 10 pt. favorite. The model has them winning by a TD. I need to Bears to lose since I have them at under 6.5 wins for the season but I liked what I saw from them versus the Niners and I can get behind the value.

GOOD LUCK

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