SNF: Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins

The Botton line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, and the NHL.

Tonight we are covering SNF between the Steelers and the Dolphins.

And we are back after taking a couple of games off. I really need to be into a game to be able to write about it and I have lots of interest in the Dolphins since my dumb ass bet their wins total future twice by mistake. My over 9 wins looked really nice until Tua got hurt and they dropped a couple of games they should have won. Tonight Tua is back and I hope the Dolphin's offense can get that magic back.

Prior to Tau's injury, the Dolphins were 1st in points per drive and they dropped 29th without him, therefore, his return is huge for tonight's game.

The Steelers stole one versus Tampa but how impressive was that victory since Carolina also gave the Bucs a beating this afternoon? No matter how we handicap this game, the Steelers are still the worst in yards per play and sit dead last in the league.

The Dolphins are catching the Steelers in a massive letdown spot and even if their defense has been coming up big they are not healthy. The Steelers OL hasn't been good either which results in a poor running game raking them at the bottom of the league in both running and passing. So, how bad were the Bucs for the Steelers to win last week? Very bad!

The Bottom line: My model has this game at -4 but I am comfortable taking the Dolphins up to -6.5. The line was pushed to -7 and now -7.5 and the handle moved from 75% on Miami to 56% on the Steelers since the line moved to +7.5 indicating some buyback on the Steelers. The biggest issue with supporting the Dolphins is that it takes one big hit and Tua might go back into concussion protocol. If all goes well with Tua, I can't see the Steelers keeping this close since the Dolphins have too many weapons and Pittsburgh wont be able to stop them. Take the Dolphins at -7. Also, another way is to tease them down to -1 and the under 50.5

GOOD LUCK TODAY

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