MNF: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Botton line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, and the NHL.

Tonight we are covering MNF between the Saints and Bucs.

Once again the book set itself up to make sure they are making money no matter the outcome. This line opened at -6 at some books while the majority opened at -4 or -4.5. Oddly enough the tickets and handle are still in favor of the Bucs however we did have a sharp signal on the Saints all week at +4.5 as per the sharp report. A shit load of season trends points to the Saints at +3.5 or better.

The under also dropped however I don't see any sharp interest at the book. In 2022, in divisional games, in all games where the total dropped, the under cashed 70% of the time. The Bucs are 9-2 on the under and printing money. The Broncos are 11-1 on the under just to give you an idea.

The sharp number was the +6 that was available at most of the places last Sunday night. I can live with someone making a case if they take the +3.5 but I have no interest in the +3. Brady has been terrible when facing Allen's defense and tonight shouldn't be any different. The Saints defense did great last week versus the 49ers but the offense couldn't do shit.

The Bottom line: While the focus is on the sides, my interest is on the under in this game. Both offenses will struggle tonight however turnovers tonight might an issue, especially for Tampa. Therefore, the risk is if they lose the ball in their territory but once again, I doubt we will see anything out of the ordinary by the Saints offense. Also, the weather will be on our side in this game. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and it went under in 11 of the last 14 games in Tampa.

Bet the under 41.

GOOD LUCK TODAY

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