MLB totals are the cleanest +EV market in US sports for one reason: baseball is the most variable sport per pitch, and a small number of measurable factors move the true expected run total meaningfully — factors that sportsbooks model but don't always weight correctly.
Three weather variables shift the run total at every outdoor ballpark:
NBA is the deepest prop market in US sports.
NFL is the most-bet, most-modeled, and most-efficient market in American sports — the hardest league to find raw mispricing in, and the easiest one to…
Most bettors carry five recurring arithmetic problems and solve none of them cleanly. What does this parlay pay, and is that price fair?
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