NBA is the deepest prop market in US sports. Roughly 12 starters, 70+ touches per game, multiple statistical categories per player — that's hundreds of priced props per night. Sportsbooks can't carefully model every one of them. That's where the edge lives.
Why pace is everything
Possessions per game drives every counting stat in basketball. A 105-possession game produces more rebounds, more assists, more points, more shots than a 95-possession game. The books model pace, but they often anchor on season averages and miss matchup-specific bumps — a slow team playing a fast team usually trends toward the fast team's pace, not the average of both.
