Wind blowing out does not mean an automatic over, and MLB park factors, weather, lineup order and platoon splits each nudge expected runs by a small amount, and the skill is knowing how big each nudge is and how to combine them. You will start from a baseline of 8.0 runs and adjust step by step for park, lineup and weather, then see why multiplying the adjustments quietly assumes they are independent. Small samples get special attention: an extreme left-right split over a handful of at-bats should be pulled back toward a broader baseline. Learn this and you stop chasing stories and start sizing real effects before you bet a total.
Learning objectives
Explain the mechanism, reproduce the worked examples, identify failure modes, and use the exercise to show comprehension.
