Your numbers say the home side wins by 6. The posted line says 3. Is that an edge or a mistake? Power ratings vs market prices is the comparison this lesson teaches. You build a rating on a common scale, so +5 against -2 means seven points at a neutral site, then handle venue and travel as separate terms. You see why a 20-point win can mislead, and how to blend an old rating with new performance, say 80% prior and 20% new. Then you turn the margin into a cover chance and look at where you and the line disagree. For bettors who want an opinion of their own rather than a follow, it is the starting tool.
Learning objectives
By the end, members should be able to implement and explain the method, reproduce the worked example, identify failure modes, and distinguish a supported research conclusion from an unsupported betting claim.
