Not every headline moves a contract's true odds. Prediction market news only matters when it changes the likelihood of the exact resolution rule. This lesson teaches you to ask two questions about any story: does it touch the contract's settlement conditions, and had the market already priced it in? You will build an event timeline with source, publication and ingestion times beside the bid, ask and depth, and learn to separate a rumor, an announcement and the formal result. A worked case blends favorable and unfavorable scenarios into one probability, then updates it when the news is confirmed. The point is to revise your number from evidence instead of inventing a story after the price moves.
Learning objectives
- Understand the methodology and why professionals test it.
- Reproduce the worked example and identify its critical assumptions.
- Apply the technique in a nonfinancial paper-research exercise.
- Distinguish a robust conclusion from a seductive but unsupported interpretation.
