Your projection says a player gets 5.8 catches and the line says 5.5. Tempting, right? Pick'em line gaps like that are a reason to look closer, not a reason to enter. This lesson teaches you to check the stat definition first, then compare the line with a sportsbook prop after stripping out the vig, and finally with your own distribution of outcomes. A quarter-catch gap says little about the chance of six or more, because catches come in whole numbers and depend on snaps and targets. You will also practice diagnosing why three sources disagree, whether from injury news, stale quotes or different grading, instead of picking whichever answer flatters your pick.
Learning objectives
- Understand and reconstruct the technique.
- Complete a numerical example and explain assumptions.
- Evaluate common failure modes without overclaiming outcomes.
