Every fight that reaches the scorecards ends in the hands of three judges, and most bettors never study how they score. MMA judging follows the 10-point must system, where the round winner usually gets ten and the other fighter nine or fewer, with 10-8 rounds and deductions handled separately. You will learn to split a decision price into two parts: the chance the fight goes the distance, times the chance your fighter wins the cards given that. A 60% and 55% pair yields 33%. Judges see the same rounds, so their calls are not independent coin flips. Treat close decisions as deeply uncertain, and be careful with sample bias in historical scores.
Learning objectives
- Explain the relevant technique and distinguish observations from assumptions.
- Reproduce the worked example independently.
- Identify conditions when uncertainty invalidates an apparent edge.
