Why totals need opportunities and production rates
For many sports, scoring can be decomposed into the number of opportunities and the output per opportunity. In basketball, a basic teaching model is expected_points = projected_possessions × projected_points_per_possession. In football, analogous models often use drives and points per drive; possession definitions vary by sport. Pace is not a free-standing reason to bet an over: higher pace can coincide with poorer efficiency or be fully priced by the market.
