Round one pace is a poor guide to round three. MMA fatigue, tactics and who is ahead all change how a fight unfolds, so one averaged rate hides the story. You will use a survival model where each round carries a finish chance given the fight has reached it. With .12, .18 and .22, the chance of a decision is about 56.3%, a round-two finish is about 15.8% and a round-three finish about 15.9%. The lesson warns that an over 1.5 rounds price still needs timing inside the round. It also cautions against reading every slowdown as exhaustion, since a fighter may be controlling pace on purpose.
Learning objectives
- Explain the relevant technique and distinguish observations from assumptions.
- Reproduce the worked example independently.
- Identify conditions when uncertainty invalidates an apparent edge.
