A starter shows up on the injury report. Do you panic, or do you update? Bayesian handicapping gives you a method for treating lineup news as evidence that nudges a belief rather than settling it. You begin with a prior you can point to, name the exact state you are estimating, since out, limited and inactive are different, and then use a report's sensitivity and false-positive rate to adjust the number. You also learn not to count one story four times when several outlets repeat it. Finally you carry the leftover uncertainty into a win probability. A worked example ties it together, so news moves your number by a sensible amount instead of a gut reaction.
Learning objectives
You will learn to treat a lineup or injury report as evidence that nudges a belief instead of settling it. You will update a starting belief with Bayes' rule, then carry the leftover uncertainty into a win probability.
