Objectives
- Reproduce the lesson calculations.
- Identify the assumptions and conditions that can invalidate the modeled edge.
- Design an auditable research or practice workflow.
A benchmark is a reference price, not an oracle. To interpret a +EV scanner, distinguish the price available to a member, the benchmark price used to estimate fair probability, and the uncertainty in that estimate. A market with low limits, thin liquidity or stale updates is a weaker reference than a timely, deep market for the same settlement contract. Comparing odds across differently defined periods, overtime rules, pitching conditions or prop lines produces false discrepancies.
