Under The Knife with TheSharpSurgeon (3/30/22)

Boston -5 & Boston/Miami OV 213.5 Parlay

(A) Miami Heat (48-28) [41-34-1 ATS] vs. (H) Boston Celtics (47-29) [41-34-1 ATS]
7:30 PM EST

Play:
Parlay: Boston Celtics -5 (-110) & Boston/Miami OVER 213.5 (-110) = +260 (1 Unit) [BETMGM]

Model Prediction:
The Boston Celtics have a forecast 71% chance to win with a predicted spread of -14 and an over/under of 234.5.

Boston Celtics 124 – Miami Heat 110

Vegas Prediction/Line:

The Boston Celtics have a forecast 65% chance to win with a predicted spread of -5 and an over/under of 213.5.

Boston Celtics 109 – Miami Heat 104

Previous Games:

(H) Boston Celtics 122 – (A) Miami Heat 92 (01/31/22)

(A) Boston Celtics 95 - (H) Miami 78 (11/4/21)

Assumed Status:
(BOS) R. Williams, C, OUT
(BOS) J. Tatum, SF, PROB
(BOS) J. Brown, SG, PROB

Opening Line: BOS -5 / 214.5
Current Line: BOS -5 / 213.5

Public Consensus:  Miami 30% / Boston 70%

Summary: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The model predicts Boston to be the favorite (71%) with a spread of -14 and an over/under of 234.5  This is a 9 point score difference on the spread and a big 21 point difference on the over/under total.

Boston has experienced previous success against Denver in the 2021/2022
season (2-0).

Miami has been on a cold streak as of late. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Despite this, they are holding the number one seed in the Eastern Conference.

Boston has won 22 of their last 26 games. This puts them in direct contention for that top seed, only 1 game behind the Heat. Needless to say, this will be a very important matchup with maximum effort from both sides.

Boston has rested starters Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in their most recent game loss to the Toronto Raptors. It is assumed that both will be playing tonight with the stakes being so high and only 6 regular-season games remaining.

In 59% of games involving the Miami Heat, the over was the correct result.

Boston Celtics Center, Robert Williams will remain out. He is a crucial piece to the Boston Celtic's defense and his absence could very well lead to additional scoring inside the paint from the Miami Heat.

Over their last 5 games, the Boston Celtics are averaging 125.4 points per game compared to their season average of 110.8.

In the times that the model plays out, it should come from a high-scoring display from Boston. With the recent hot streak from the Celtics and a lot at stake, it is possible that the correlation of Boston to both cover the spread and produce a game total of over 213.5 in a parlay will provide the most value.

This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. 

TheSharpSurgeon is currently +6.18 Units with a 22% ROI on a short 11-19-1 sample. 

You can follow and track TheSharpSurgeon's bets on The Sharp App available on the Apple App Store and on Google play. 

Visit Sharp.App for more details.