Under the Knife with TheSharpSurgeon [04/12/22]

Buffalo/Toronto UN 7 (-110) / Auston Matthews OV 4.5 (-102) SOG

(A) Buffalo Sabres (26-37-11) vs. (H) Toronto Maple Leafs (47-19-6)
7:00 PM EST

Play:
Buffalo/Toronto UN 7 -110 (1 Unit) [FANDUEL]
Auston Matthews OV 4.5 Shots on Goal -102 [FANDUEL]

Model Prediction:

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a forecast 72% chance of winning with an over/under of 4.5 Goals.

Toronto 3 - Buffalo 2


Vegas Prediction/Line
:

The Toronto Maples Leafs have a forecast 80% chance of winning with an over/under of 7 Goals.

Toronto 5 – Buffalo 2

Previous Games:

(A) Toronto Maple Leafs 2 – (H) Buffalo Sabres 5 [03/13/22]

(A) Buffalo Sabres 5 - (H) Toronto Maple Leafs 1 [03/02/22]

(A) Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - (H) Buffalo Sabres 4 [11/13/21]


Expected Goalies:

BUF: Craig Anderson, 14-11-2, 3.13 GAA, .899 SV %
TOR: Erik Kallgren, 2.57 GAA, .916 SV %

Craig Anderson's record against Toronto:
2-0, 1.5 GAA, .890 SV%

Schedule:

Buffalo: 1 Day Rest, 4th away game of 5-game road trip

Toronto: 2 Day Rest (Second game home)

Assumed Status:

(TOR) Wayne Simmons (Questionable)
(TOR) Jake Muzzin (Questionable)

Opening Line: TOR -441 / 6.5

Current Line: TOR -443 / 7

Public Consensus: Buffalo 28% / Toronto 72%

Summary: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The model predicts Toronto to be the favorite (72%) with an over/under of 4.5 Goals. This is a huge difference of 2.5 Goals from the set total of 7.

Toronto has recently secured a playoff spot Saturday with a victory over the Montreal Canadians. They are now looking to extend their 2nd place lead in the Eastern Conference. Toronto has won 8 out of the last 9 games.

Maple Leaf's star Auston Matthews will be looking to reach Goal #60 along with 100 points in the regular season. You should expect to see a game plan that heavily involves the Leaf's Center as well as a counter-strategy from the Sabres with this in mind.

Buffalo will be debuting their top-prospect defensive man, Owen Power. With two recent huge victories against the Leafs last month, look for the Sabres to give a full effort in a game they believe they can win and give their rookie a memorable opener.

Buffalo Goalie, Craig Anderson, is expected to start tonight. He is responsible for 14 of the team's 26 wins with a 14-11-2 record. In his two only starts against Toronto this season, Anderson has been lights out. Anderson has a 1.5 Goals allowed on a .955 Save % against the Leafs.

We expect Auston Matthews to be featured heavily and believe there should be enough volume to make the over 4.5 Shots on goal a +EV bet. However, it should be easier to contain defensive-wise with a telegraphed strategy.

Late into the season with most outcomes already decided, it can lead to a harder time predicting, but there are many factors at stake here that will make this a hard contested game. Currently, the public is hammering the over, believing in Toronto's hot streak to continue. While we expect Toronto to win, we are on the opposite side with the total. We trust the model and the math and hope to take advantage of the move from 6.5 to 7 goals.



This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. TheSharpSurgeon is currently +4.47 Units with an 11% ROI on a 17-28-1 sample. You can follow and track TheSharpSurgeon's bets on The Sharp App available on the Apple App Store and on Google play. Visit Sharp.App for more details.