WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge April 26, 2024

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Lucia Bronzetti 700 942 -3% Madrid
Elena Rybakina -1000 -942 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Caroline Garcia -245 -321 5% Madrid
Xin Yu Wang 195 321 -10% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -295 -218 -6% Madrid
Daria Saville 235 218 2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Mirra Andreeva -135 -129 -1% Madrid
Linda Noskova 110 129 -4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Magda Linette 500 545 -1% Madrid
Aryna Sabalenka -700 -545 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 450 1543 -12% Madrid
Jasmine Paolini -600 -1543 8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Caroline Dolehide 245 298 -4% Madrid
Anhelina Kalinina -310 -298 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Ekaterina Alexandrova -230 -246 1% Madrid
Ashlyn Krueger 185 246 -6% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Marta Kostyuk -425 -254 -9% Madrid
Mayar Sherif 320 254 4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Sara Bejlek 205 248 -4% Madrid
Anna Kalinskaya -255 -248 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jaqueline Cristian 155 157 0% Madrid
Barbora Krejcikova -190 -157 -4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Qinwen Zheng -310 -234 -6% Madrid
Yulia Putintseva 245 234 1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Katie Boulter -165 -142 -4% Madrid
Robin Montgomery 135 142 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Marketa Vondrousova -650 -255 -15% Madrid
Shelby Rogers 475 255 11% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Danielle Collins -475 -417 -2% Madrid
Olga Danilovic 370 417 -2% Clay