Sharp App: Data-Driven Sports Betting Tools & AI Prop Modeling
  • Login
  • Sign up

Statsational ATP Model March 25

John Alesia
John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.


March 25

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Jiri Lehecka

-205

-151

-7%

Lorenzo Musetti

165

151

2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Borna Coric

-235

-440

11%

Christopher Eubanks

185

440

-17%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Aleksandar Kovacevic

115

104

3%

Francisco Cerundolo

-140

-104

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Richard Gasquet

380

460

-3%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

-575

-460

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Felix Auger Aliassime

-2500

-769

-8%

Thiago Monteiro

1000

769

2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alex De Minaur

-310

-381

4%

Quentin Halys

240

381

-9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sebastian Baez

160

187

-4%

Cristian Garin

-200

-187

-2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yoshihito Nishioka

-125

-241

15%

Alex Molcan

100

241

-21%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Hubert Hurkacz

-310

-202

-9%

Thanasi Kokkinakis

240

202

4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Daniel Evans

130

-112

9%

Lorenzo Sonego

-165

112

-15%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yosuke Watanuki

320

336

-1%

Frances Tiafoe

-425

-336

-4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Gregoire Barrere

500

358

5%

Cameron Norrie

-800

-358

-11%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Karen Khachanov

-350

-467

5%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

265

467

-10%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Adrian Mannarino

135

110

5%

Ben Shelton

-170

-110

-11%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Roberto Carballes Baena

1300

1457

-1%

Daniil Medvedev

-6000

-1457

-5%

Offers

There are no promotional offers available for the selected region.

More Tennis

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

See More