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Statsational ATP Model February 27

John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.


February 27

ATP Acapulco

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yoshihito Nishioka

150

119

6%

Frances Tiafoe

-185

-119

-11%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Taylor Fritz

-290

-229

-5%

John Isner

220

229

-1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Emilio Gomez

390

508

-4%

Tommy Paul

-550

-508

-1%


Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Christopher Eubanks

-500

-168

-21%

Feliciano Lopez

350

168

15%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Daniel Altmaier

195

341

-11%

Brandon Nakashima

-250

-341

6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marcos Giron

-150

-196

6%

Michael Mmoh

120

196

-12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Denis Shapovalov

-160

-111

-9%

Miomir Kecmanovic

130

111

4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Matteo Berrettini

-500

-463

-1%

Alex Molcan

350

463

-4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Carlos Alcaraz

-280

-379

5%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

215

379

-11%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Ben Shelton

215

346

-9%

Holger Rune

-280

-346

4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alex De Minaur

-6000

-4067

-1%

Rodrigo Mendez

1400

4067

-4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Cameron Norrie

-215

-260

4%

Adrian Mannarino

170

260

-9%

ATP Dubai

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Thanasi Kokkinakis

-190

-178

-1%

Quentin Halys

155

178

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marc Andrea Huesler

150

116

6%

Lorenzo Sonego

-190

-116

-12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Tallon Griekspoor

-245

-129

-15%

Constant Lestienne

190

129

9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Malek Jaziri

1600

956

4%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

-10000

-956

-8%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexei Popyrin

-180

-155

-3%

Pavel Kotov

145

155

-2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Filip Krajinovic

380

328

3%

Andrey Rublev

-525

-328

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexander Zverev

-105

-128

5%

Jiri Lehecka

-115

128

-10%

ATP Santiago

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Pedro Martinez

115

107

2%

Yannick Hanfmann

-145

-107

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Pedro Cachin

150

205

-7%

Francisco Cerundolo

-185

-205

2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alejandro Tabilo

-150

121

-15%

Jaume Munar

120

-121

9%

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