Statsational ATP Model February 27
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.
February 27
ATP Acapulco
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Yoshihito Nishioka | 150 | 119 | 6% |
Frances Tiafoe | -185 | -119 | -11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Taylor Fritz | -290 | -229 | -5% |
John Isner | 220 | 229 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Emilio Gomez | 390 | 508 | -4% |
Tommy Paul | -550 | -508 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Christopher Eubanks | -500 | -168 | -21% |
Feliciano Lopez | 350 | 168 | 15% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Daniel Altmaier | 195 | 341 | -11% |
Brandon Nakashima | -250 | -341 | 6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marcos Giron | -150 | -196 | 6% |
Michael Mmoh | 120 | 196 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Denis Shapovalov | -160 | -111 | -9% |
Miomir Kecmanovic | 130 | 111 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Matteo Berrettini | -500 | -463 | -1% |
Alex Molcan | 350 | 463 | -4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Carlos Alcaraz | -280 | -379 | 5% |
Mackenzie Mcdonald | 215 | 379 | -11% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ben Shelton | 215 | 346 | -9% |
Holger Rune | -280 | -346 | 4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alex De Minaur | -6000 | -4067 | -1% |
Rodrigo Mendez | 1400 | 4067 | -4% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Cameron Norrie | -215 | -260 | 4% |
Adrian Mannarino | 170 | 260 | -9% |
ATP Dubai
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Thanasi Kokkinakis | -190 | -178 | -1% |
Quentin Halys | 155 | 178 | -3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marc Andrea Huesler | 150 | 116 | 6% |
Lorenzo Sonego | -190 | -116 | -12% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tallon Griekspoor | -245 | -129 | -15% |
Constant Lestienne | 190 | 129 | 9% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Malek Jaziri | 1600 | 956 | 4% |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | -10000 | -956 | -8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alexei Popyrin | -180 | -155 | -3% |
Pavel Kotov | 145 | 155 | -2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Filip Krajinovic | 380 | 328 | 3% |
Andrey Rublev | -525 | -328 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alexander Zverev | -105 | -128 | 5% |
Jiri Lehecka | -115 | 128 | -10% |
ATP Santiago
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Pedro Martinez | 115 | 107 | 2% |
Yannick Hanfmann | -145 | -107 | -7% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Pedro Cachin | 150 | 205 | -7% |
Francisco Cerundolo | -185 | -205 | 2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alejandro Tabilo | -150 | 121 | -15% |
Jaume Munar | 120 | -121 | 9% |
Offers
There are no promotional offers available for the selected region.
