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Statsational ATP Model February 12, 2024

John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

February 12

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dino Prizmic

100

151

-10%

David Goffin

-125

-151

5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Milos Raonic

-125

-122

-1%

Jesper De Jong

100

122

-5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Tallon Griekspoor

-185

-194

1%

Lorenzo Musetti

145

194

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Maxime Cressy

215

509

-15%

Felix Auger Aliassime

-280

-509

10%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arthur Fils

-200

-135

-9%

Dusan Lajovic

160

135

4%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Stan Wawrinka

-125

-193

10%

Pedro Cachin

105

193

-15%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yannick Hanfmann

-120

-150

5%

Alejandro Tabilo

100

150

-10%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Facundo Diaz Acosta

110

122

-3%

Daniel Altmaier

-140

-122

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sebastian Baez

-310

-175

-12%

Bernabe Zapata Miralles

240

175

7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Marin Cilic

125

113

3%

Laslo Djere

-160

-113

-9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sebastian Ofner

115

-240

24%

Federico Coria

-145

240

-30%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Roberto Carballes Baena

190

126

10%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

-245

-126

-15%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Constant Lestienne

110

109

0%

Aleksandar Vukic

-135

-109

-5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yoshihito Nishioka

120

-110

7%

Matteo Arnaldi

-150

110

-12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dominik Koepfer

-140

-111

-6%

Nuno Borges

115

111

1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Patrick Kypson

280

216

5%

Miomir Kecmanovic

-380

-216

-11%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Facundo Bagnis

140

111

6%

Luciano Darderi

-175

-111

-11%

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