ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 10, 2024

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I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Yoshihito Nishioka 500 379 4% Rome
Grigor Dimitrov -650 -379 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Lorenzo Musetti -650 -593 -1% Rome
Terence Atmane 475 593 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Zhizhen Zhang -525 -151 -24% Rome
Adrian Mannarino 400 151 20% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alexander Shevchenko 285 310 -2% Rome
Karen Khachanov -360 -310 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Ben Shelton -200 -156 -6% Rome
Pavel Kotov 165 156 1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jordan Thompson 200 123 12% Rome
Thiago Monteiro -250 -123 -16% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Thiago Seyboth Wild -115 104 -4% Rome
Tomas Martin Etcheverry -115 -104 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alexander Zverev -1600 -1016 -3% Rome
Aleksandar Vukic 1100 1016 1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Nuno Borges -135 111 -10% Rome
Alexander Bublik 110 -111 5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Dominik Koepfer -110 138 -10% Rome
Frances Tiafoe -115 -138 4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -170 -134 -6% Rome
Hamad Medjedovic 135 134 0% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Yannick Hanfmann 130 143 -2% Rome
Alejandro Tabilo -160 -143 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jaume Munar 115 184 -11% Rome
Cameron Norrie -140 -184 6% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Tallon Griekspoor -225 -724 19% Rome
Francesco Passaro 185 724 -23% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Luciano Darderi 130 201 -10% Rome
Mariano Navone -160 -201 5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Flavio Cobolli 155 129 4% Rome
Sebastian Korda -195 -129 -10% Clay