ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge April 27, 2024

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I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Thiago Monteiro 475 1054 -9% Madrid
Stefanos Tsitsipas -600 -1054 6% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Max Purcell 500 319 7% Madrid
Sebastian Korda -700 -319 -11% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jiri Lehecka -130 -168 6% Madrid
Hamad Medjedovic 110 168 -10% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Pedro Cachin 180 388 -15% Madrid
Frances Tiafoe -225 -388 10% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Pavel Kotov -130 -120 -2% Madrid
Jordan Thompson 105 120 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jannik Sinner -2000 -895 -5% Madrid
Lorenzo Sonego 1300 895 3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Daniil Medvedev -210 -258 4% Madrid
Matteo Arnaldi 170 258 -9% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alexander Bublik 170 108 11% Madrid
Roberto Carballes Baena -210 -108 -16% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Grigor Dimitrov -290 -359 4% Madrid
Jakub Mensik 230 359 -9% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Nicolas Jarry -195 -239 4% Madrid
Flavio Cobolli 160 239 -9% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Tomas Machac 105 127 -5% Madrid
Ben Shelton -130 -127 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alex De Minaur -180 -138 -6% Madrid
Rafael Nadal 145 138 1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Cameron Norrie -225 -351 9% Madrid
Joao Fonseca 180 351 -14% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Felix Auger Aliassime -600 -270 -13% Madrid
Adrian Mannarino 450 270 9% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Roberto Bautista Agut 185 162 3% Madrid
Karen Khachanov -235 -162 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Miomir Kecmanovic 450 604 -4% Madrid
Casper Ruud -575 -604 1% Clay