Statsational Soccer May 28. 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source each day. Then, I present the model's estimation of what the line should be. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. When it comes to soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage each of you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your own observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

May 28

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Aston Villa

1.36

100

149

-10%

Brighton

1.17

240

224

1%

Draw

300

246

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Chelsea

1.07

185

217

-4%

Newcastle

1.24

135

153

-3%

Draw

270

246

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Everton

1.39

-195

125

-22%

Bournemouth

1.01

550

288

10%

Draw

340

236

7%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Brentford

0.84

320

579

-9%

Man City

1.97

-125

-183

9%

Draw

310

386

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Man United

1.73

-195

-135

-9%

Fulham

0.90

500

438

2%

Draw

360

318

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Leeds

1.21

165

270

-11%

Tottenham

1.67

145

108

7%

Draw

290

301

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arsenal

1.88

-275

-199

-7%

Wolves

0.73

700

714

0%

Draw

450

373

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Leicester

1.27

-105

183

-16%

West Ham

1.29

250

180

7%

Draw

310

245

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Southampton

0.73

600

775

-3%

Liverpool

2.08

-230

-245

1%

Draw

400

470

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Crystal Palace

1.51

-140

-107

-7%

Forest

0.86

370

407

-2%

Draw

310

251

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Valencia

1.59

-115

-109

-1%

Espanyol

0.97

275

387

-6%

Draw

260

267

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bilbao

1.73

-330

-163

-15%

Elche

0.76

800

552

4%

Draw

425

340

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Atletico

1.45

110

-103

3%

Sociedad

0.85

245

401

-9%

Draw

225

241

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Barcelona

2.04

-350

-273

-5%

Mallorca

0.63

850

1122

-2%

Draw

425

436

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Cadiz

1.27

160

138

3%

Celta

1.01

175

252

-8%

Draw

210

237

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Rayo Vallecano

1.10

195

254

-6%

Villarreal

1.46

120

125

-1%

Draw

255

266

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Getafe

1.14

125

147

-4%

Osasuna

0.90

245

262

-1%

Draw

195

214

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Almeria

1.53

120

114

1%

Valladolid

1.07

205

293

-7%

Draw

235

260

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Girona

1.28

-105

162

-13%

Betis

1.14

245

213

3%

Draw

265

235

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Juventus

1.23

130

157

-5%

Milan

1.05

195

232

-4%

Draw

230

223

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lazio

2.09

-500

-278

-10%

Cremonese

0.66

1000

1113

-1%

Draw

550

450

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bologna

0.87

220

430

-12%

Napoli

1.67

120

-128

11%

Draw

225

300

-6%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Verona

1.20

-155

173

-24%

Empoli

1.11

380

207

12%

Draw

285

226

5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Monza

1.55

140

-116

12%

Lecce

0.83

195

434

-15%

Draw

210

264

-5%