Statsational Soccer June 4. 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source each day. Then, I present the model's estimation of what the line should be. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. When it comes to soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage each of you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your own observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from DraftKings

June 4