Statsational Soccer January 22, 2023

John Alesia
John Alesia
As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as possible. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis), I tend to be slightly leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match,
but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

January 21

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Leeds

1.25

140

203

-9%

Brentford

1.40

185

149

5%

Draw

265

273

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arsenal

1.51

-115

110

-6%

Man United

1.02

300

310

-1%

Draw

280

257

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Arsenal

1.51

-115

110

-6%

Man United

1.02

300

310

-1%

Draw

280

257

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Man City

2.21

-525

-366

-5%

Wolves

0.57

1300

1333

0%

Draw

650

592

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Bilbao

0.89

180

388

-15%

Real Madrid

1.60

140

-116

12%

Draw

235

288

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Barcelona

2.03

-600

-275

-12%

Getafe

0.61

1300

1127

1%

Draw

600

441

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Elche

1.02

255

245

1%

Osasuna

1.26

110

145

-7%

Draw

210

230

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Villarreal

1.88

-140

-193

8%

Girona

0.75

340

663

-10%

Draw

280

376

-5%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Dortmund

2.07

-320

-221

-7%

Augsburg

0.81

700

711

0%

Draw

450

430

1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Gladbach

1.51

165

150

2%

Leverkusen

1.35

135

198

-9%

Draw

265

278

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Juventus

1.39

120

131

-2%

Atalanta

1.07

220

264

-4%

Draw

220

241

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Sampdoria

1.02

245

292

-3%

Udinese

1.45

110

114

-1%

Draw

225

262

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Spezia

0.85

370

449

-3%

Roma

1.67

-140

-133

-1%

Draw

255

304

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Monza

1.33

115

163

-9%

Sassuolo

1.26

220

194

3%

Draw

235

257

-2%