March 3, 2024 Soccer Betting Model by "Stats"

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtained the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclosed the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line. 

Naturally, one might bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading. 

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently. 

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

March 3

Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Man City 2.17 -380 -274 -6%
Man United 0.74 900 929 0%
Draw 550 487 2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Burnley 1.18 255 199 5%
Bournemouth 1.27 105 164 -11%
Draw 275 248 2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Mallorca 1.09 215 258 -4%
Girona 1.46 125 122 1%
Draw 220 270 -4%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Atletico 1.79 -195 -165 -4%
Betis 0.79 475 539 -2%
Draw 320 352 -2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Bilbao 1.19 175 197 -3%
Barcelona 1.27 140 164 -4%
Draw 245 251 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Villarreal 2.00 -170 -203 4%
Granada 0.82 390 665 -7%
Draw 320 401 -4%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Toulouse 1.04 235 210 2%
Nice 1.13 130 174 -7%
Draw 220 220 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Rennes 1.92 -245 -161 -9%
Lorient 0.93 700 484 5%
Draw 380 370 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Montpellier 1.44 100 129 -6%
Strasbourg 1.14 275 253 2%
Draw 255 257 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Nantes 1.30 -125 132 -13%
Metz 0.97 400 282 6%
Draw 250 225 2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Brest 1.51 -160 -126 -6%
Le Havre 0.75 500 463 1%
Draw 280 278 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Lyon 1.16 160 202 -5%
Lens 1.28 185 164 3%
Draw 220 245 -2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Koeln 0.86 650 483 4%
Leverkusen 1.77 -290 -149 -14%
Draw 400 336 3%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Hoffenheim 1.56 -110 118 -7%
Werder 1.16 250 273 -2%
Draw 275 265 1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Verona 1.42 120 139 -4%
Sassuolo 1.19 215 233 -2%
Draw 230 257 -2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Napoli 1.14 135 177 -6%
Juventus 1.06 210 212 0%
Draw 205 214 -1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Atalanta 1.53 -110 112 -5%
Bologna 1.06 290 305 -1%
Draw 235 255 -2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Frosinone 1.38 125 139 -3%
Lecce 1.14 210 240 -3%
Draw 220 248 -3%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Empoli 1.48 105 104 0%
Cagliari 0.95 260 347 -5%
Draw 220 250 -3%