Feb 25, 2024 Soccer Betting Model by "Stats"

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtained the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclosed the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line. 

Naturally, one might bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading. 

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently. 

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

February 24

Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Wolves 1.86 -230 -167 -7%
Sheffield United 0.84 650 517 3%
Draw 380 369 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Cadiz 1.19 200 160 5%
Celta 1.04 145 230 -11%
Draw 195 219 -3%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Betis 1.16 245 173 8%
Bilbao 1.06 115 215 -15%
Draw 215 216 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Las Palmas 1.25 140 136 1%
Osasuna 0.95 220 279 -5%
Draw 190 221 -3%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Real Madrid 2.31 -370 -407 2%
Sevilla 0.58 750 1480 -5%
Draw 475 646 -4%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Lens 1.60 145 100 9%
Monaco 1.05 190 331 -11%
Draw 255 272 -1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Nice 1.53 -245 -126 -15%
Clermont 0.77 750 458 6%
Draw 360 281 5%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Toulouse 1.01 320 264 4%
Lille 1.35 -110 127 -8%
Draw 260 251 1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Le Havre 0.99 205 213 -1%
Reims 1.07 145 178 -5%
Draw 225 212 1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Paris SG 2.00 -235 -188 -5%
Rennes 0.88 650 570 2%
Draw 390 404 -1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Marseille 1.66 -140 -114 -5%
Montpellier 0.96 400 390 0%
Draw 295 280 1%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Frankfurt 1.57 125 101 5%
Wolfsburg 1.02 205 334 -10%
Draw 230 266 -3%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Dortmund 2.28 -225 -298 6%
Hoffenheim 0.79 450 967 -9%
Draw 390 535 -5%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Augsburg 1.25 115 182 -11%
Freiburg 1.23 210 194 2%
Draw 245 228 2%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Juventus 2.12 -350 -288 -4%
Frosinone 0.66 800 1142 -3%
Draw 450 464 0%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Cagliari 0.84 310 475 -7%
Napoli 1.72 -125 -144 4%
Draw 260 325 -4%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Lecce 0.62 600 960 -5%
Inter 2.03 -250 -267 1%
Draw 350 461 -4%
Teams Proj Score Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE
Milan 1.53 135 116 4%
Atalanta 1.09 185 289 -9%
Draw 235 256 -2%