Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 11 , 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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We had 2 highlighted games yesterday and the sharps went 1-1. The Marlins lost again to Arizona while Verlander dominated and took the W for the Astros.

Just like yesterday we don't have much going on in the NHL. The sharps did take position one total 2 days ago and that was on the Rangers over 6 -116. The total was moved right after the line opened but since then the handle has been accumulating on the under 6.5 but the books haven't moved the total. The Rangers and Igor have been terrible defensively and the Pens have just murdered with 6 to 7 goals per game. I have no more faith in the Rangers. My model has this game at 6.11 and doesn't like the over. I'm staying away.

In Florida, I can confirm that there is sharp interest in the Capitals however zero impact on the line. The same was reported at some US books. The Capitals' interest came around +190 +200. The Caps have proven to be good value in taking 2 of 4 games in this series.

The Grizzlies are getting sharp interest at +4. They are back home and without Morant. They just couldn't close the last game in which they dominated most of it just because both teams were terrible from the field and the 3's. I'll always like Memphis at home but tbh they've been shooting poorly in this series and without Morant's much-needed offensive I don't have any interest in Memphis.

Totals continue to be the target in MLB. The sharp report has 2 unders that the sharps liked early on. One of them is the under in Washington. It looks like this total will get steamed twice, 1st at 8.5 and now at 8 -120. A drop to 7.5 would create some heavy buyback on the over. My MLB model has this game 8.07 at I prefer the over. Both teams are hitting the ball well. The Nats have an wRC+ of 138 in the last 7 days which makes them the 3rd best. The Mets are at 114 L7. This total will come down to how the BP will pitch. Sanchez should be in for max 4 innings and it will be interesting to see how Megill handles the Nats hot bats.

Good luck today

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