Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 9, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Sharps were heavy on the under 215.5, went as low as 212.5 and closed between 213.5 and 214.5 based on your book. The game ended at 216. Sharps were wrong on the under. Sharps were also wrong on the under 9 in Cincinnati. The Reds offense just didn't show up last night. That total closed at 9.5
In the NHL today the sharps have been on the under since the end of game 4. The total opened at 5.5 -135 and it's now at -140. As we get deeper in the series we should expect less and less scoring with monster performances in nets. In the last 3 games the under hit with some sort of ease and in line with my projections for this series. There is always that concern with the Rangers when playing at home. They are averaging 4.22 GF/G during the playoffs and have only lost 1 game (8-1). The Lighting is 4-4 on the road and has the momentum on their side however it will be a tough game for them tonight. My lean is on the Rangers to continue their home dominance and the under 5.5. 63% of the handle is on the Rangers and 82% on the under.The sharps report has 5 sharp money bets early this morning. We will review 2 of them quickly. Sharps are on the under 7 this afternoon between the Cards and Rays. My model has this game at 8.18 mainly because Mikolas regressed since May 11th. He has been dominant on the road with an ERA of 2.54 and he gets a little boost with the Rays without Lowe and Franco. The Cards love to face LHP, they are the 3rd best wRC+ and 4th best wOBA versus LHP this season. It won't be an easy game for the Cards versus a dominant McClanahan. He barely allowed 2 ERs in the last 26 innings pitched and contained the Yankees to 1 run on 7 hits in his last game. The second game with heavy sharp interest is on Cleveland. The Guardians can be a perfect start to all your parlays today. The line opened at -167 and sharps slammed it to -186. There is also a higher than usual amount of money on the run line at -1.5. That can also be an option. The A's are trying to catch up to the Angels with the most consecutive losses this season and they have a good chance tonight with Kaprielian on the mount. The Guardians are hot and should smash the A's and Kaprielian's ERA of 8 in his last 3 games. He allowed 13 runs in 14 innings with 4 HRs. Pilkington finally made it to 5 innings last game and cruised thru KC's lineup and should do the same with easy versus the A's weak lineup.
Good luck today
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