Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 7, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
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RECAP: Insane game in Edmonton last night! VIPs had 3.5 units on the Avs and the sweat was real! I would like to thank my Montreal Canadians for trading Lehkonen to Colorado. Without him, last night's victory was impossible. Anyway, the sharps weren't on Colorado last night as mentioned in my write-up. The only game we covered was the under in Houston. The model was on the opposite side and I supported the over. Sharps were wrong and the model right once again.
Get ready for another crazy NHL game tonight. The Lightning will try and tie the series at 2 a piece but it won't be easy. Igor has been a wall and playing better than Vasilevskiy. We don't have sharp interest in this game. The line opened at -160 and it's now at -173 with 65% of the handle on the Lightning. The max bet limit is almost fully opened therefore I doubt we would see much more movement. The total is at 5.5u -124 and we can see the juice move up to -135 to -140 like in previous games. 55% of the money is on the over. Let's keep an eye on that. The way the Rangers have been playing there is obvious value in them at +156. I prefer the under in this game. Expect some hard nose hockey with minimal mistakes and another show run by the goalies.
The MLB sharp report has 3 games early this morning. One of them is the Marlins which opened at -161 and went up as high as -180. It is now settled at -177 and 53% of the handle is on the Nationals which gives us a clear indication that the heavy bets have landed on the Marlins. With Cabrera pitching for Miami, my MLB model has them at -127 which opens value on the Nationals and is in disagreement with the sharp interest. The Nationals are set to start Evan Lee which we don't know much of except that he pitched 3.2 innings 6 days ago versus the Mets and allowed 2 ERs on 4 hits, gave 3 walks and had 2 SO. It's hard to model a pitcher with no sample size. It is also possible that Odon starts, but there are no confirmations yet. If he does start, I will need to change my projections for this game but he's been terrible with an ERA close to 6 and a terrible walk rate of close to 14%. Cabrera has one start this season and he was lights out pitching 6 innings and striking out 9 Rockies hitters. He is a top prospect and he should dominate the Nationals lineup today. I like the Marlins today but it's a big price to pay. You can try and bet the F5 at -0.5 or the runline. The Marlins have outscored the Nats 17-8 in their last 3 games versus the Nationals. Washington is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road and 1-5 last 6 games when playing in Miami. There is a risk coming into this game, the Nationals won 3 of 4 in Cincinnati and scored 23 runs in their last 3 games. The over 8 is also in play as per the sharp report. The total moved from 8 to 8.5 overnight. Good luck today
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