Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 8, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: It was a busy weekend for me and I didn't get enough info to write up the Overnight Grind. We are back at it today with 1 game.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
Based on the sharp report and the model, there is one game that both agree on, and it's the Orioles at +122. Baltimore opened at +134 at Betonline and with 73% of the handle on them pushed the book to adjust the line to +120 and it moved a little since then and is now settled at +122.
The Jays got lucky yesterday and continue to be on the road where they haven't been that great. The Orioles squad did take a hit at the trade deadline however they have been playing 10 games over .500 at home. I love when I'm seeing from Lyles. He beat the Yankees and gave up 3 runs and after that only gave up 1 run in his next 12 IP and got 2 more wins. Which Kikuchi will show up tonight? No idea. With a WHIP of close to 2 on the road, I don't expect much from him today. After Kikuchi, the Jays will have to worry about the bullpen that has taxed in the last 2-3 games. The line movement in the Oriole's favour can also be due to Hayes return. Lineups are still not out but keep an eye on that.
I support the sharps and the MLB betting model here.
Good luck today
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