Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 21, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: My gosh was I ever wrong with my NFL leans? The Bills pulverized the Broncos in preseason play yesterday.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.For Sunday, the sharps and model agree on 3 games and ill keep the write-up short so we can cover all 3 games.
The Phillies were hit by sharp money in the -115 range and the line is now close to -125. The Mets will start Butto from AAA. we don't have much of a sample size for him in AAA but he hasn't been that great in AA. Sharps are trusting Gibson over Butto today and it's a game the Phillies will want to absolutely win today.
Our second game is on a team I grew to hate this season because they always screw me when betting the total. But the Pirates have been good to me when betting them straight up and today the sharps and model lie them. With Minor on the mount, the sharps hit the -115 and the line moved up to -120 but the line is dropping however no indication that there is sharp money on the other side. Minor is 1-10 this season while Thompson hasn't really been good but I understand why the sharps are backing the Pirates today.
Our last game is a game I also support. It's the under 8 in Cleveland will be a square play also based on the last 2 games, both offenses couldn't really do much versus the pitching staff. Today we have Civale and Cease on the mount. The total opened at 8 and it was an instant smash on the under.
Good luck today
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