Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps April 12, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Sharps continue to struggle and it was no different yesterday. They expected a lot of runs in Detroit and the game finished 3-1. The Brewers have been terrible, from pitching to hitting, TERRIBLE. Sharps were wrong on the Brewers!

Very busy today, full slate in the NHL and MLB. We have some NBA playoff also.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

The Canes are 2 points ahead of the Rangers and if the playoffs would start today they would face the Bruins. The Rangers would face the Pens and I believe based on the recent success the Rangers had versus the Pens they would rather play them and not the Bruins. This will definitely be a playoff-type of game and the intensity will be very high. Both goalies have yet to be confirmed and getting that confirmation will be very important before betting this game. In the meantime, the sharps already know and have already taken their position. The Rangers opened a -120 favourite yesterday morning and within the first 90 minutes, sharps smashed the Canes moving the line in their favour up to -128. I expect a defensive battle in this game I prefer the under if it gets back to 6. My NHL model has this line at -108 therefore there was value on the Canes.

In the NBA we don't have much going on except a slight adjustment in the under in Brooklyn tonight. The total opened at 229 and it dropped to 227.

SEATTLE MARINERS

The sharps are banging on Velasquez continuing to suck with his 6.30 ERA last year and his short stints at the mount. Brash will make his debut in the majors and while he maintained a K/9 of 13 throughout A, A+ and AA it will be interesting to see how he will handle the WhiteSox. As per my MLB model, we now have value on WhiteSox since the sharps took a position on the Mariners. I won't buy into the value yet since I need a larger sample size in projecting Brash. Betonline opened Chicago as a -145 favourite yesterday afternoon. While the handle was coming in on Chicago we saw the line drop to -130 and -120 triggering a reverse line movement on the Mariners. The handle went from 90% on the Chicago to 53% this morning. My model has Chicago at -136 therefore we have a +6% EV on them. I will sit this one out and follow Brash's K prop of 4.5 and see how his minor league stuff can handle the majors!

TEXAS RANGERS

My model was all over the Rockies yesterday and same were the squares. What stopped me from betting them was that the sharp money was on Texas as per the sharp report! Well, they were wrong. The sharps are on Texas tonight with Perez on the mount. As for Kuhl, he's been terrible on the road. He went 1-5 last year with an ERA close to 8 and in his career, his ERA is close to 5 on the road. The Rockies have shown great grit since the start of the season however this was one of the worst teams on the road and they are 11-23 in their last 34 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. All that said, my MLB model likes the Rockies (SMH) and it doesn't agree with the sharps. Now, this Texas team is much different than last year's edition and in modelling sometimes you need to adjust a team rating based on a smaller sample size if the team went thru major improvement or vice-versa. That adjustment hasn't been done yet. So, I agree with the sharps tonight and I also like Texas.

Good luck today

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