Anthony P's NHL Model November 28, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR NOV 28, 2022

The Golden Knights have dropped 2 straight and looked terrible against Vancouver. In their last 2 games, they've barely shot 25 times per game while their mean is closer to 35 SOG/G. The Bluejackets have also dropped 2 straight and lost 3 of 4. It's hard to buy into the value on the Bluejackets. They will be playing the 3rd game in 4 nights and 4th in 6 nights. They are 1-6 in their last 7 playing on a 1 day's rest therefore this 3 in 4 and 4 in 6 will weigh even more. Vegas's offense has stalled lately however this match-up versus the worst defensive team is exactly what they need to get back on track.

The offense is finally clicking for the Red Wings and they have scored 20 goals in their last 5 games. They have limited the opposition to under 30 SOG/P in their last 4 which helped them win their last 4 games. Toronto won 4 of their last 5 and just beat the Wild, Pens, and Devils. The Leafs have dominated this matchup by winning 20 of their last 26. The model likes the under and the smart money agrees. This total opened at 6.5 and it dropped to 6 at most of the markets. Both teams are in the top 10 in xGA/60 and their PKs have been solid. The Leafs have an edge in puck possession and I support the under however prefer the 6.5.


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