Sunday Night Football Week 7 NFL Props With Adam Strangis

The Sunday Night Football contest for Week 7 doesn't have the most sizzle ever, but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made! The Colts travel West to take on the San Francisco 49ers in a game that carries a total of just 43 points and the 49ers are favored by four points. There are a couple of numbers that stand out here so let's get to work!

Deebo Samuel Over 61.5 Receiving Yards at -115

This one seems way off in my eyes. Deebo has had his bye week and he's still fifth in receiving yards among receivers. He's averaging 109.6 yards per game and while some of that is due to his explosion games with over 150 yards, you can't take that away from him. His air yards share is eighth and his target rate is fourth. The Colts are 29th in DVOA against the pass and this number is at least 10 yards too low. Even if he draws Xavier Rhodes in coverage, Rhodes has allowed a 71.4% catch rate and a 127.1 passer rating. 

Michael Pittman Over 4.5 Receptions at +125

The 49ers have about as healthy a secondary as they've had all season but this line is way out of pocket. Pittman did have a dud of a game last week, granted. However, the score was out of hand in the favor of the Colts early. T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell are out in this game which leaves Pittman competing for targets with Zach Pascal, Keke Coutee, and Mike Strachan. Pittman is still in the top 20 in targets and in the four games before Hilton came back, Pittman recorded at least six receptions every single time. This should not be a fairly heavy underdog. 

Eli Mitchell Over 60.5 Rushing Yards at -115

On the surface, this bet might seem odd. The Colts rank first in DVOA against the run but they also allow over 4.0 yards per carry. That is still top 10 in the league but before the bye, Mitchell played 67.7% of the snaps compared to 3.1% of the snaps for Trey Sermon. The 49ers have been very reluctant to get Sermon involved if they have a choice, so I expect plenty of chances for Mitchell. Indy has allowed 494 rushing yards to backs through six games so 61 yards for Mitchell is attainable provided he continues to be the number one back. 

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