MNF: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

The Botton line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, and the NHL.

Tonight we are covering MNF between the Steelers and Colts.

This is lining up to be an ugly one. Both offenses have been awful but the Colts have the 5th best defense and the Steelers got Watt back. Even with Watt back, the Steeler's defense is allowing close to 400 yards per game, which is 5th worst and terrible in the air allowing the worst passing yards in the league.

Tomlin owns Ryan and the Colts and Ryan has done poorly historically versus the Steelers. Pushing the research a little further, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 versus AFC south while the Colts are 1-6 ATS versus the AFC north. The Steelers have won 16 of the last 18 games straight up against the Colts and covered both games in which they were underdogs. MASSIVE DOMINANCE.

The Steeler's defense is a concern even with Watt back. They gave up 346 passing yards to the Bengals last game. How much of a bump can we give Ryan? Can we assume that Tomlin has another master plan against him? Can the Steelers find more success running the ball after going over 100 yards for the first time in 3 straight games?

What is the sportsbook telling us? The Colts opened at -3 and it's down to -2.5 and with close to 70% of the handle on the Steelers, I really doubt this line will move back up to -3. The total is moving between 38.5 and 39.5 with both tickets and handles favoring the under. We have no sharp money at the book however larger bets on the under opened a liability at the book and they will be cheering for the over.

The Bottom line: As per our game matchup preview on the app, this game is projected to have a total of 131.7 total plays and it ranks the lowest in all of the week 12 slate. A strong lean toward the under based on that information however my initial thought was the over. As per a side, who the @#($@#% knows what to expect tonight but I like the long history of success the Steelers have over this underperforming Colts team. My only play in this game will be on a prop. The Colts are solid at defending the run but I really like what I've been seeing from Harris's last 2 games. With 20 touches, over 90 rushing yards last 2 games and he's 6 targets in 2 of his last 3 games, I anticipate that he will have another big game.

Najee Harris over 61.5 -110 rushing yards.

GOOD LUCK TODAY

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