Falcons vs Bears Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 31st, 2023

a year ago

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The Falcons enter the game with a 7-8 record this season, while the Bears are sitting at 6-9. The Bears have been on fire at home, winning their last four consecutive home games. On the other hand, the Falcons have struggled recently, losing six of their last ten games.

In their previous game, the Falcons secured a victory, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 29-10. Meanwhile, the Bears also emerged victorious in their last game, beating the Arizona Cardinals 27-16.

The last time these two teams faced off was in Week 11 of the 2022 season, resulting in a thrilling home win for the Falcons by a close margin of 27-24. The game came down to a single field goal, adding to the excitement.

Heading into this matchup, the Bears are considered a slight favorite at home. The odds suggest a 57% chance of victory for the Bears, while the Falcons have a 43% chance of winning the game. Initially, the spread opened with the Bears favored by three points, but it has since moved to Bears -2.5, representing a small shift.

Football fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly anticipating this clash, looking to see if the Bears can continue their impressive home streak or if the Falcons can replicate their previous success against their opponents.

Falcons Insights

While Mack Hollins has been responsible for 8.1% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Atlanta's passing attack in this game at 0.3%.
Taylor Heinicke's 161.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a material decline in his passing ability over last season's 202.0 rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have been among the worst passing offenses in the NFL this year (#25 overall), registering a terrible 208.0 adjusted yards per game through the air.

Bears Insights

The weather report calls for light snow in this game... which usually causes lower air attack volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Robert Tonyan Jr. has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (7.0 per game) than he did last season (22.0 per game).
The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to accrue 0.34 receiving TDs in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Betting Trends

The Chicago Bears have scored first in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.35 Units / 13% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 62% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)