Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | September 23, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 11-6-1, +4.93u
RECAP: Gosh, it’s been a minute since I’ve had the opportunity to write one of these! We went absolutely crazy last night, with a huge NCAAF parlay hit. If you’re not in the Discord, what are you doing? We had a Wisconsin/NCST/Air Force parlay that hit, and we have FOUR PRO plays today. Below, I’ll give you one of them.

September 23, 2023

PICK: University of Miami -22.5
Mario Cristobal is looking to change the dynamic at The U, and so far in his tenure there, he’s been able to do just that. Two of his games so far have been gimmes, with wins over Miami Ohio, Texas A&M, and Bethune. Yet, that win over A&M begs to be looked at, and should be a good basis for what we’re going to see today against Temple. 

Cristobal’s offense has been its bread and butter to begin the season, ranking 15th in the league in total yards. But what stands out to me is their Yards/Play stat, which sits at 8.3, good enough for 6th in the league. And if you watch this offense, there’s very little room for error as a defensive unit; they are the most explosive team in the nation, and it’s not even close. When we look at their passing offense, led by QB Tyler Van Dyke, he’s averaging over 10 yards/attempt, and completing 70% of this passes so far this season. He’s building a really nice resume for himself, and this offense is absolutely humming to begin the season. 

This Temple defense is going to have a fit with this offense, as in most of their statistics are below league average. Their passing defense has been mostly sound this season, but they haven’t played anyone with a quarterback like Van Dyke; even in their loss to Rutgers, Rutgers relies heavily on their running game. We just haven’t seen an explosive passing offense take on these corners and safeties. 

And this Temple offense is decent in stretches, don’t get me wrong; they have a decent passing attack, but they’ve only been able to pass against teams with poor defenses. Miami doesn’t have a poor defense by any measure; in fact, they have the 8th best rushing defense in the league right now, and are actually better than average in their passing defense, which was a sticking point this offseason. How were they going to defend the pass? Well, the answer is: at a league-average pace. 

There’s a lot of points on the board today to cover, but Miami has been able to blow out two teams this season by more than 22.5. And, the Canes are 2-1 against the spread, and their only loss is last week when they couldn’t win by more than 53. We only need them to win by half of that, against a team with a shallow defense and an offense that can be thwarted. I love this high-powered offense for Miami, so let’s look for them to roll big.

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!